(NEW YORK) — El Nino conditions are present and expected to strengthen in the coming months, bringing potentially significant impacts to our weather, the upcoming hurricane season and global temperatures, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA issued an El Nino Advisory on Thursday, meaning El Nino conditions are observed and expected to continue. Its latest forecast calls for a strong El Nino to likely develop in the fall, with a 63% chance of a very strong El Nino between November 2026 and January 2027, which could rank among some of the strongest such events on record.

NOAA also noted that stronger El Nino events only make certain impacts more likely and do not always guarantee strong impacts.

El Nino refers to the warmer-than-average phase of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle where sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise and fall. The cooler-than-average phase is called La Nina, while near-average conditions are known as ENSO-neutral.

NOAA ranks the strength of El Nino events by measuring the sea surface temperature departure from average (anomaly) across this region, classifying events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.

Forecasters say confidence in a strong to very strong event later this year has increased now that the spring season has passed. This is largely because spring in the Northern Hemisphere is when sea surface patterns across the tropical Pacific Ocean are in a transitional phase contributing to lower model accuracy.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement.

While adjectives such as “super” and “extreme” are popular ways of describing the strength of an El Nino event on social media, NOAA and the WMO classify the strength as weak to moderate, strong, and very strong. The WMO noted in a recent statement that “the term [[super]] is not part of standardized operational classifications.”

El Nino and La Nina events occur at irregular intervals, typically every 2 to 7 years. El Nino has been somewhat more frequent than La Nina in past observations, but both phases vary in timing and intensity from one cycle to the next.

As Earth’s climate warms, however, identifying and measuring these events becomes more challenging because temperature differences are superimposed on the long-term ocean warming trend.

“As the climate warms, interpreting anomalies becomes more challenging,” said Dr. Tim Stockdale, principal scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). “Rising background temperatures can make recent El Nino events appear stronger than they are, and La Nina events seem weaker.”

To address these challenges, NOAA and ECMWF updated the way they measure El Nino and La Nina this year, using a new index which compares sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific to global tropical ocean conditions rather than just that region’s historical data. NOAA calls this new method the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), which helps remove the effect of overall ocean warming.

The WMO notes that there is no evidence that human-amplified climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events.

Typical El Nino impacts across the United States

Impacts from El Nino, similar to La Nina, tend to be most consistent and pronounced from late autumn through early spring following the event’s onset, NOAA says. There is usually a delay between the onset of the event and many of the associated effects.

Experts caution that the impacts on weather patterns are nuanced. Each season is different, and typical El Nino conditions don’t always materialize.

“Every El Nino is different in terms of timing, magnitude, and geographic extent, and such differences lead to variability in the impacts — on temperatures and rainfall, for example — on a global scale,” Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior staff researcher at Columbia Climate School, said.

Typically, during El Nino, the northern half of the United States and parts of Alaska are more likely to see warmer-than-average temperatures, with near- to below-average temperatures favored along the southern tier of the U.S., most likely from Texas to the Southeast.

For precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are typically observed along the southern tier of the U.S. in parts of California, the Southwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast. Below-average precipitation is frequently observed across parts of the northern Rockies, south-central Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.

El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the southern Rockies, south-central Plains, mid-Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast, with below-average snowfall favored in the northern Rockies, northern Plains and Great Lakes regions.

El Nino’s influence on hurricane season activity

El Nino conditions often suppress tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season by producing unfavorable atmospheric winds. In the Eastern Pacific, the opposite occurs, with favorable conditions supporting above-average hurricane season activity.

This was reflected in NOAA’s hurricane outlook released on May 21, with the agency predicting below average tropical activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with above average activity likely in the eastern Pacific.

“El Nino increases convection (thunderstorms) across the eastern and central Pacific, which causes downstream wind shear over the Atlantic from strong upper-level winds,” said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.

Vertical wind shear, which refers to changes in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere, is often a primary factor in below-average hurricane season activity. Strong vertical wind shear can tear a developing tropical system apart or even prevent it from forming, NOAA says.

“The rising motion over the Pacific also leads to increased subsidence (sinking air) over the Atlantic, which suppresses thunderstorms and tropical cyclone development,” Hazelton added.

El Nino’s impact on tropical activity will largely depend on how quickly it intensifies. Even so, El Nino is only one of several important variables which influence tropical activity.

Other factors, such as sea surface temperatures, also play an important role in tropical cyclone development and strength. Unseasonably warm ocean waters can partially offset the effects of unfavorable atmospheric winds, according to forecasters.

Global temperature records could be challenged again

2024 ranked as the planet’s warmest year on record, following the last El Nino event, which emerged in mid-2023 and persisted through spring 2024, according to NOAA. However, the return of El Nino means global temperature records could be challenged again in the near future, depending on its peak intensity and duration.

While global air and sea surface temperatures are currently falling short of new record highs, climate scientists warn this pause is unlikely to last. Record highs in global average temperature often occur during El Nino years, combined with the long-term global warming trend driven primarily by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

“Warmer ocean temperatures associated with El Nino, together with its tendency to favor warmer conditions in many areas, often contribute to warmer than normal global annual temperatures,” Jon Gottschalck, Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said.

According to NOAA, 2025 ranked as the third-warmest year on record globally, trailing 2024 and 2023. The slightly lower ranking came amid recent La Niña conditions, which typically cause a temporary dip in global average temperatures.

There is usually a delay between the onset of El Nino and its peak impacts on global temperatures, NOAA says. As with the most recent event, its greatest influence often occurs in the months after it peaks, which can keep global temperatures elevated into the following year.

According to the latest outlook from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, the likelihood that 2026 will rank among the five warmest years on record is about 98.5%, while the probability of it becoming the warmest year is less than 1%. However, those odds could rise significantly in 2027, depending on how the event unfolds.

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(WASHINGTON) — Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on Wednesday told the House Oversight Committee probing the government’s investigation of Jeffrey Epstein that Gates “never victimized anyone” and that meeting with Epstein “was a grave error in judgment,” according to his prepared opening remarks.

Gates, appearing in a closed-door setting, faced questions about his relationship with the late financier, marking one of the most high-profile interviews conducted by the Oversight Committee since it began probing the government’s handling of its investigations into the notorious sex offender. 

Gates told lawmakers that when he first began to engage with Epstein, and throughout the time he spent with him, he was aware that Epstein had a criminal conviction that was sexual in nature, but insisted he did not know the details of Epstein’s crimes, according to multiple sources familiar with the interview. 

Gates told lawmakers that he was not friends with Epstein and that they didn’t socialize beyond dinners where Epstein suggested that he could help Gates raise money for philanthropic endeavors. Gates said that no young women were present at the dinners, sources said. 

Included among the millions of documents released by the Justice Department this year in response to the Epstein Transparency Act are draft emails where Epstein claimed Gates had extramarital affairs resulting in a sexually transmitted infection — a claim Gates has denied. 

Gates acknowledged having two extramarital affairs that Epstein later learned about. He said that he met those women separately from Epstein and that Epstein never offered women to him, according to sources.  

Gates said that he doesn’t know for sure when Epstein first learned about his extramarital affairs, but he believes his former science advisor Boris Nikolic informed Epstein about them, sources said. 

‘I have never victimized anyone’

“I never witnessed nor had any indication that Epstein was engaged in ongoing criminal conduct. I never went to his island, his ranch, or his Florida home. I have never victimized anyone,” Gates testified in his closed-door appearance, according to a copy of his prepared opening statement.

Gates said that Epstein sought to “foster a personal relationship” with him, but said his focus remained on using Epstein to recruit new donors for Gates’ global health initiative.

“My interactions with Epstein began with a limited number of preliminary meetings — three in 2011 and two in 2012 — during which I talked about the goals of my work,” Gates said, according to his statement. “We began more extensive conversations in 2013 and 2014. The discussions focused on identifying potential giving structures, such as donor-advised funds, and how to enroll individuals he claimed were interested in making significant contributions.”

Gates said he can “recall being aware that Epstein had faced prior legal issues” but added he “did not fully understand the extent of the crimes he committed,” per the statement.

He also told the committee that he Epstein learned “sensitive information about my personal life” — including that he had been unfaithful in his marriage to Melinda French Gates.

“These affairs had nothing to do with my interactions with Epstein, but they were painful for my family,” Gates said, according to the statement. “As the public can now see, based on what has been released in the files, Epstein was working to use information about my infidelities — in addition to many lies that he layered on top — to pressure me to re-engage with him. He was unsuccessful in this effort, but it shows some of the ways he tried to leverage his interactions with me to further his agenda.”

In brief remarks to reporters on his way in Wednesday morning, Gates said, “I’ll start with an opening statement in the hearing room. I hope my testimony is helpful to the work, important work of the committee to find justice for the victims.” Following his appearance, Gates did not answer questions from reporters as he left the Capitol.

Rep. Robert Garcia, the committee’s ranking Democrat, said during a break that Gates was being “cooperative” in answering the committee’s questions, but noted at times he was “pushing back.”

“So far, Mr. Gates has been cooperative and answering our questions,” Garcia said.

Garcia said Gates referenced other individuals who were involved with Epstein, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

Rep. Suhas Subramanyam of Virginia said “there has been a lot of apologies” from Gates.

“He is sorry he associated with Epstein so much … but in the end what is done is done,” he said.

Comer seeks Blanche appearance

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) first reached out to Gates in March to schedule the behind-closed-doors interview, writing in a letter that the tech billionaire might “have information that will assist in its investigation.” In recent weeks, the Committee has conducted similar transcribed interviews with former Attorney General Pam Bondi, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Epstein’s longtime executive secretary Lesley Groff. 

Comer told reporters Wednesday morning that he also wants Todd Blanche, the acting attorney general and President Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney general, to answer questions before the panel.

“I’m communicating with the Department of Justice. I would like for Todd Blanche to come in in July, Comer said. “He’s got, you know, I think we all know he has a big confirmation coming up, but I’ve always wanted Blanche to come in.”

Comer would not specify whether he intends to seek a transcribed interview or a public hearing with Blanche. Asked what he hopes to learn from Blanche, Comer said, “I think that the main thing that we have for Blanche is the question on, you know, what, if any, documents are left out there.”

Garcia said during a break that he would like Blanche to sit for a videotaped deposition under oath, although he’d prefer a public hearing. ABC News first reported on Garcia’s request in a June 2 letter he sent to Comer in which he sought “video-taped, transcribed interviews” with Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel.

“It’s very important to us that that is a deposition that is under oath and it’s videotaped and released to the American public,” Garcia told reporters Wednesday.

To date, the committee has only recorded video of the depositions it’s held with witnesses under subpoena, as opposed to the transcribed interviews where witnesses have appeared voluntarily.

Comer also said that he is seeking a transcribed interview with attorney Alan Dershowitz after consulting with some of Epstein’s victims in the wake of Groff’s transcribed interview on Tuesday. Dershowitz, when contacted by ABC News, said he is eager to testify before the panel and that he “has a lot of relevant information” about the disgraced financier. 

“I would be the most relevant person for them to call,” Dershowitz said. “I want it to be open. I want it to be under oath.”

Dershowitz claimed to have information that would contradict some of the testimony the committee has already heard, arguing that some of Epstein’s victims were “complicit.” 

“The area is much grayer than it looks,” Dershowitz said. 

Very, very painful times’

Gates’ association with the late financier has roiled his nonprofit and reshaped the public perception of the tech billionaire who was once the world’s richest man. HIs relationship with Epstein faced a new wave of scrutiny earlier this year when the Department of Justice’s release of Epstein files included correspondence between the two men, as well as cryptic notes drafted by Epstein that hinted at Gates’ extramarital affairs. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, Gates apologized to the staff of his nonprofit during a town hall in February and acknowledged that he had affairs with two Russian women that Epstein later discovered. A spokesperson for Gates in a 2023 statement said that Epstein “tried unsuccessfully to leverage a past relationship to threaten Mr. Gates.”

“In the town hall, Bill spoke candidly, addressing several questions in detail, and took responsibility for his actions,” a spokesperson for the Gates Foundation told ABC News. 

Melinda French Gates — who previously said her 2021 divorce from Bill Gates was driven in part by his association with Epstein — said earlier this year that the documents brought back memories of “some very, very painful times” in their marriage.

“Whatever questions remain there … those questions are for those people, and for even my ex-husband,” she said on NPR’s Wild Card podcast about what she described as a societal “reckoning” over the Epstein files. “They need to answer to those things, not me.”  

Members of the Oversight Committee have expressed a desire to learn whether Epstein used his sex trafficking network to lure in wealthy and influential men to blackmail — allegations that the DOJ and FBI said they found “no credible evidence” of last year. 

Neither of the women who Gates acknowledged having affairs with — a Russian bridge player and nuclear physicist — were said to have been introduced to Gates by Epstein, though a spokesperson later said that Epstein sought to “leverage” his knowledge of one of his past relationships to “threaten” Gates. 

The interview is also likely to touch on how Epstein was able to ingratiate himself with Gates just three years after pleading guilty to charges of soliciting a minor for prostitution. Gates has previously said he was aware of an “18-month thing” that limited Epstein’s travel, and he regrets not further investigating Epstein’s background.  

According to documents released earlier this year by the Department of Justice, Gates first met Epstein in 2011. 

“I won’t have time to do another meeting and I won’t be able to do the dinner with Jeff Epstein,” Gates wrote in a 2010 email to Boris Nikolic, his former science advisor. “I was looking forward to the dinner.”

Gates later said he hoped he could leverage Epstein’s relationships with “very rich people” to support his global health philanthropic efforts. 

“The focus was always: he knew a lot of very rich people, and he was saying he could get them to give money to global health. In retrospect, that was a dead end,” Gates told 9News Australia in February. 

‘No fund was ever created’

According to documents released by the DOJ, both men continued to communicate for at least three years, with Epstein at one point urging Gates to use a specific philanthropic vehicle known as a “donor advised fund” to make charitable contributions. At the time, Epstein compared donor advised funds to “cloud computing for the giving world.”  

“It is a good analogy,” Gates wrote in a February 2014 email. “It is clearer to me now than before and it could be a great thing.” 

But by December 2014, Gates appeared to cool on Epstein’s proposal, suggesting in an email that the plan was not viable for him. 

“In terms of the DAF I don’t think we have any people at this point who will move to do something soon,” Gates wrote. “It is a good idea, but it won’t come together with 4-6 partners anytime soon.” 

In a statement earlier this year, the Gates Foundation said it did not move forward with Epstein’s fund and never transferred any funds to the disgraced financier. 

“On the basis of Epstein’s claims that he could mobilize significant philanthropic resources for global health and development, a small number of foundation employees interacted with Epstein to try to secure this potential funding. Ultimately, the foundation did not pursue any collaboration with Epstein and no fund was ever created,” a spokesperson for the Gates Foundation said in February. 

By March, the Gates Foundation commissioned an external review to assess its past engagement with Epstein as well as its policies for vetting philanthropic partnerships. Foundation officials said in a statement they expected to get an update about that review later this summer. 

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