With less than a week to the midterms elections, an ABC News analysis of the early vote in the key states of Texas and Georgia shows signs of more enthusiasm among Democrats, who are getting slightly higher turnout among those who don’t vote regularly — particularly in Texas — compared to what they got in 2022.

More than 39 million Americans have voted early as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida.

Much of the apparent surge in turnout is among voters who likely would have voted later in the pre-election period or on Election Day, the analysis shows. Less-habitual voters who are voting early, while a much smaller number compared to regular voters, appear to be more likely to vote for the Democrat.

The data from voter records firm L2 that ABC News’ analysis is based on does not indicate who someone might have voted for and does not say anything about who might yet turn out on Election Day.

The analysis also uses L2’s models for whether a voter is likely to vote Democratic or Republican, as neither Texas nor Georgia register voters by party. The modeling uses available information like turnout in primaries and other factors to predict which party people are likely to support.

The early vote in Texas

More than 5 million voters had cast early ballots in Texas as of Wednesday, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 20% of the state’s registered voters.

There are closely watched races for Senate and governor in the Lone Star state; Democrats hope to flip both despite not having won a statewide race since 1994. President Donald Trump rallied there twice on Tuesday and Republicans say the president’s swings through red-leaning states are meant to turn out his base and motivate Republicans who otherwise might have sat out this midterm.

As of Monday, 51% of the early vote in Texas is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Democrats while 45% is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Republicans, the analysis shows — a 14 percentage point swing for Democrats from 2022 when they were behind Republicans by around 8 percentage points when early voting was finished. Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points in 2024.

In Texas, regular voters who voted in four out of the last four federal elections made up a greater share of the turnout as of Monday than they did in the complete early vote in 2024 and 2022, according to the analysis. This doesn’t necessarily mean that more habitual voters have shown up, just that fewer less-regular voters have. The habitual voters make up 60% of the early vote this year, as of Monday; this group made up 47% of the total early vote in 2024 and 44% of the total early vote in 2022

The early vote data shows that Democrats are getting far higher turnout among the less frequent voters in Texas who likely prefer Democrats, in comparison to the less frequent voters who likely prefer Republicans. Whether it be during the remaining days of early voting or on Election Day, Republicans will need to mobilize their less enthusiastic supporters.

Among voters who did not vote in any of the last four federal elections but who have voted early in Texas as of Monday, 64% of them are modeled as likely to vote for a Democrat and 21% as likely to vote for a Republican. In the total early vote in 2022, 50% of these voters were modeled as likely Democratic voters and 39% were estimated to be likely Republican voters.

In the early vote to date, there are far fewer less-habitual voters compared to high-turnout ones and they take up a smaller share of the early vote overall. Still, close elections are decided at the margins and polling in Texas has shown the Senate and governor’s races being close.

The early vote in Georgia

More than 2.1 million voters had cast early ballots in Georgia as of Wednesday morning, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, where the Senate and governor’s races are also being closely watched.

In the Senate race, GOP Rep. Mike Collins is trying to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Democrats are trying to flip the governorship as Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican businessman Rick Jackson in a race both parties see as competitive.

According to ABC News’ analysis, 54% of the early vote in Georgia is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Democrats while 38% is from voters modeled as likely to vote for Republicans.

In Georgia, habitual voters who voted in four out of the last four federal elections comprised a greater share of the turnout as of Monday than they did in the early vote one week out from the 2022 midterms.

Habitual voters made up 67% of the early vote in 2026 as of Monday while they comprised 55% of the total early vote one week from Election Day 2022.

Among voters who did not vote in any of the last four federal elections but who have voted early in Georgia as of Monday, 52% of them are modeled as likely to vote for Democrats and 12% are modeled as likely to vote for Republicans. In the early vote at this time in 2022, 51% of those voters were modeled Democratic and 27% were modeled Republican

Meanwhile, among voters who voted in two out of the last four federal elections who had voted early in Georgia as of Monday, 56% are modeled Democratic and 24% Republican. In the early vote at this point in 2022, 54% of those voters were modeled Democratic and 35% Republican.

Early voting ends in both states on Friday.

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Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola’s campaign is under fire after a New York Times report Wednesday that it played a role in recruiting Dan J. Sullivan — a Republican who almost has the same name as incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan — as part of an effort to sow confusion and ultimately benefit Peltola’s campaign.

The Times report said it relied on 12 sources, text messages and documents that allegedly showed members of Peltola’s campaign, lawyers for Peltola and senior aides at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee contributed to pushing Dan J. Sullivan, a Republican on Alaska’s four-way ballot, to run.

The Times said the effort to find a spoiler candidate — who could potentially siphon votes from Sen. Sullivan and benefit Peltola — was internally referred to as the ballot composition project.

Alaskans for Mary, the campaign committee for Peltola, said through a spokesperson on Wednesday that it “has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign.”

The DSCC told ABC News in a statement that it was “not involved with Dan J. Sullivan.”

“Republicans have a long history of recruiting and propping up candidates in an attempt to boost their own campaigns,” a DSCC spokesperson wrote in the statement, detailing an instance when Peltola ran for reelection in the House in 2024 and the state Republican Party supported an effort by a Democratic House candidate and inmate in New York federal prison to stay on the ballot, challenging Peltola.

Peltola finished first in Alaska’s August primary with 49.5% of the vote and Sen. Sullivan was second with 41.4%. Dan J. Sullivan was third with 2.5% of the vote and Democrat David Leslie finished with 1.1%. Leslie later dropped out of the race and Republican Gerald Heikes, who finished fifth in the primary with 1%, moved into the fourth spot on the November ballot.

On the general election ballot, Sen. Sullivan is listed as Dan S. Sullivan, a registered Republican and it is noted that he is the incumbent. The other Sullivan is listed as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. with no party affiliation.

In response to the Times report, President Donald Trump said in a social media post Wednesday afternoon that Peltola should “suffer the Legal and Political consequences for what she has done,” and that she and Dan J. Sullivan should be kicked off the ballot. The president also said Peltola engaged in “election fraud.” 

“Dan Sullivan should be allowed to run without either Mary Peltola or FAKE Dan Sullivan on the Ballot,” Trump wrote.

ABC News has reached out to Dan J. Sullivan’s campaign for comment on the New York Times’ report. ABC News also reached out to the Alaska Department of Elections for comment.

Alaska courts evaluated the dispute over Dan J. Sullivan’s candidacy and found nothing illegal about his bid to be on the ballot — even if it was not entirely in “good faith” or an attempt to “confuse and mislead” as the Trump administration and Republicans contend. 

Ballot-stacking tactics are common in politics and are widely considered legal, the New York Times reported.

Former Peltola staffer Elisa Rios told the Times about the reported recruitment effort, saying Peltola wasn’t directly involved but that she was “definitely aware.”

However, the Times also reported that Rios later requested a retraction of the statements she gave the newspaper, though she did not disclose a reason. 

Rios was also reportedly fired from the campaign this past summer, just days before the primary. At the time, the Peltola campaign told ABC News the “campaign has undergone staffing updates as we transition into the general election” but did not comment on Rios specifically.

For months, Republicans have claimed that Dan J. Sullivan was pursued as a candidate in order to confuse Alaskan voters and potentially peel away voters from the incumbent GOP senator.

In a statement on Wednesday, Nate Adams, campaign spokesperson for incumbent Sen. Sullivan said that “Alaskans deserve the truth” and claimed that Peltola and her campaign “have spent months gaslighting Alaskans” in an effort to “deceive” voters.

The Department of Justice has an active criminal investigation into the circumstances surrounding Dan J. Sullivan’s candidacy dating back several months, ABC News has reported.

In a statement on Wednesday, the Alaska Department of Law said the Times’ story confirmed its initial concerns about Dan J. Sullivan’s candidacy, but it had no impact on the DOJ litigation.

“Placing candidates on the ballot is a matter of state law, not federal law,” it said. “The Alaska Supreme Court ordered the Division to place Daniel J. on the primary election ballot and he advanced to the general election under Alaska law as the third-place candidate.”

“The Division is bound by the Alaska Supreme Court’s order and is committed to running a fair election and assisting voters as needed,” it said.

The Trump administration preemptively filed a lawsuit last week to block certification of the Alaska Senate race if Sen. Sullivan narrowly loses, citing voter confusion with two Dan Sullivans on the ballot.

The federal judge handling that case signaled considerable skepticism of DOJ’s legal strategy on Monday.

District Judge Sharon Gleason highlighted the last-minute nature of the government’s actions, especially as Alaskans have already begun casting their ballots.

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The federal judge in New York handling the prosecution of ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro has died. 

Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein died of natural causes Wednesday morning just shy of his 93rd birthday, according to Laura Taylor Swain, chief judge of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

“Judge Hellerstein was an insightful and dedicated lawyer who, following a distinguished career in the private sector, served with distinction for over 25 years as a distinguished jurist of this court,” Swain said in a statement, in part. “His energetic and dedicated service to this Court continued until his death. He is greatly appreciated and will be sorely missed.”

“We were saddened to learn of Judge Hellerstein’s passing and offer our condolences to his family,” Nicolas Maduro’s attorney said in a statement to ABC News.

Hellerstein was appointed by President Bill Clinton in 1998 and oversaw a diverse array of federal cases in the nation’s preeminent district court, including litigation involving the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, over which Swain said he presided “with sensitivity, fairness and efficiency.”

Born in New York City on Dec. 28, 1933, Hellerstein earned his law degree from Columbia Law School in 1956. He clerked for Judge Edmund Palmieri of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York from 1956 to 1957 and served in the U.S. Army JAG Corps as a first lieutenant from 1957 to 1960, according to Swain’s statement. He subsequently worked as a litigator at a New York law firm from 1960 until his appointment to U.S. district court by President Clinton.

A new judge will be randomly assigned to take over the Maduro case and Hellerstein’s other matters, according to the court.

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